Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,881$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(859 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,282.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(51,282.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,618$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(23.1 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,830$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $54,817$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(704 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,437.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 52.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,437.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,533$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(30.4 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,877.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,877.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,757$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $126,611$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.94 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{316,777.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(316,777.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,588$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(233 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,088.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15,088.7\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $66,653$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,048$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(996 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,917.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(41,917.2\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $281$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(21.1 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{329.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(329.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,578$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,959$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(480 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,857.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(15,857.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $397$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(32.4 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{475.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(475.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,414$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,886$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(39.9 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,347.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 75.8)}}\) (asimptote \(17,347.0\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $91$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(8.63 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{534.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 61.7)}}\) (asimptote \(534.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,597$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,208$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(523 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,352.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,352.3\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $273$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(28.9 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{338.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(338.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,411$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $673$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(171 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{636.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 19.5)}}\) (asimptote \(636.4\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.78 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(21.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $170$ on 2020-05-06
